NFL Betting Trends Since 1999
Every NFL game since 1999, filtered by anything known before kickoff: spread, rest, travel, weather, coaches, quarterbacks and more. Each trend shows its record against the spread, the chance that record is luck, and whether it held up in later years.
| Trend | ATS | Cover % | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home underdogs | 1228-1212-69 | 50.3% | 1222-1248-39 |
| Home favorites | 2239-2402-130 | 48.2% | 2336-2369-66 |
| Road underdogs | 2402-2239-130 | 51.8% | 2336-2369-66 |
| Thursday night home teams | 140-127-8 | 52.4% | 131-139-5 |
| Home teams on a short week | 154-151-8 | 50.5% | 153-155-5 |
| Road favorites | 1212-1228-69 | 49.7% | 1222-1248-39 |
| Teams off a bye | 512-502-23 | 50.5% | 495-530-12 |
| Road teams on a short week | 152-152-8 | 50.0% | 152-155-5 |
| Division underdogs | 1405-1288-75 | 52.2% | 1319-1405-44 |
| Home favorites of 10+ | 354-366-21 | 49.2% | 357-370-14 |
| Underdogs of 7+ | 1130-1044-60 | 52.0% | 1098-1100-36 |
| Thursday night road teams | 127-140-8 | 47.6% | 131-139-5 |
| Monday night home teams | 218-234-12 | 48.2% | 221-236-7 |
| Sunday night favorites | 220-222-10 | 49.8% | 214-229-9 |
| West Coast teams in early East games | 149-141-7 | 51.4% | 147-144-6 |
| Off an upset loss | 1128-1082-77 | 51.0% | 1107-1147-33 |
| Off a 14+ point loss | 1155-1149-60 | 50.1% | 1126-1206-32 |
| Off a 14+ point win | 1221-1261-65 | 49.2% | 1258-1247-42 |
| After an overtime game | 406-416-23 | 49.4% | 412-424-9 |
| Three straight ATS losses | 651-613-43 | 51.5% | 633-653-21 |
| On a 3+ game win streak | 1031-1023-46 | 50.2% | 1028-1038-34 |
| Teams under .300 after week 8 | 738-695-32 | 51.5% | 696-746-23 |
| Lost the last meeting by 14+ | 1196-1180-66 | 50.3% | 1215-1191-36 |
| Division rematches | 1356-1356-72 | 50.0% | 1362-1370-52 |
| Coaches facing a former team | 50-48-2 | 51.0% | 63-36-1 |
| Teams with a new starting QB | 663-704-41 | 48.5% | 676-713-19 |
| Rookie QBs after week 10 | 444-484-26 | 47.8% | 452-487-15 |
| Three or more extra days of rest | 723-693-32 | 51.1% | 719-707-22 |
| Playoff underdogs | 165-137-6 | 54.6% | 146-155-7 |
| Freezing games (32°F or colder) | 203-174-7 | 53.8% | 200-177-7 |
| Windy games (15+ mph) | 323-336-20 | 49.0% | 289-380-10 |
| Totals of 51 or more | 253-292-9 | 46.4% | 271-273-10 |
| Line moved 1.5+ toward the team | 650-640-21 | 50.4% | 644-653-14 |
| Home favorites of 3 or less | 655-725-70 | 47.5% | 700-726-24 |
Break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Most trends land near 50%: the closing line already knows them.