NFL Teams off a bye: ATS Record Since 1999
The game after a bye week. 1,033 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 509-501-23 (50.4%)
Straight up: 565-464-4 (54.9%)
Over/under: 492-529-12 (48.2% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.48 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -3.8%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2012: 274-257 (51.6%); 2013-2026: 235-244 (49.1%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
This week’s games that fit
- 2026-11-08: NO vs CLE
- 2026-11-08: NYG at PHI
- 2026-11-08: HOU at LAC
- 2026-11-08: SF vs LV
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7-3 | 70.0% |
| 2025 | 20-16 | 55.6% |
| 2024 | 13-23 | 36.1% |
| 2023 | 17-16-3 | 51.5% |
| 2022 | 18-18 | 50.0% |
| 2021 | 15-19-2 | 44.1% |
| 2020 | 17-19 | 47.2% |
| 2019 | 17-21 | 44.7% |
| 2018 | 20-16-2 | 55.6% |
| 2017 | 18-18-2 | 50.0% |
| 2016 | 22-14-2 | 61.1% |
| 2015 | 21-16-1 | 56.8% |
| 2014 | 13-24-1 | 35.1% |
| 2013 | 17-21 | 44.7% |
| 2012 | 21-17 | 55.3% |
| 2011 | 18-19-1 | 48.6% |
| 2010 | 20-16-2 | 55.6% |
| 2009 | 18-18-2 | 50.0% |
| 2008 | 21-16-1 | 56.8% |
| 2007 | 21-17 | 55.3% |
| 2006 | 20-18 | 52.6% |
| 2005 | 23-15 | 60.5% |
| 2004 | 19-19 | 50.0% |
| 2003 | 18-19-1 | 48.6% |
| 2002 | 19-16-1 | 54.3% |
| 2001 | 28-30-1 | 48.3% |
| 2000 | 15-18-1 | 45.5% |
| 1999 | 13-19 | 40.6% |
By team
Atlanta Falcons · Baltimore Ravens · Carolina Panthers · Chicago Bears · Cincinnati Bengals · Dallas Cowboys · Denver Broncos · Green Bay Packers · Indianapolis Colts · Kansas City Chiefs · Los Angeles Rams · Los Angeles Chargers · Las Vegas Raiders · Minnesota Vikings · New England Patriots · New Orleans Saints · New York Giants · Philadelphia Eagles · Pittsburgh Steelers · Seattle Seahawks · San Francisco 49ers · Tennessee Titans
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL teams off a bye?
509-501-23 against the spread (50.4%) in 1,033 team-games since 1999, 565-464-4 straight up and 492-529-12 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -3.8%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 274-257 (51.6%); 2013-2026: 235-244 (49.1%).