NFL Teams under .300 after week 8: ATS Record Since 1999
Bad teams late in the year. 1,458 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 736-690-32 (51.6%)
Straight up: 492-963-3 (33.8%)
Over/under: 693-742-23 (48.3% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.37 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -1.5%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2012: 390-355 (52.3%); 2013-2025: 346-335 (50.8%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
This week’s games that fit
- 2026-11-08: NO vs CLE
- 2026-11-08: IND vs DAL
- 2026-11-08: MIA vs DET
- 2026-11-08: PHI vs NYG
- 2026-11-08: NYJ at KC
- 2026-11-08: LAC vs HOU
- 2026-11-08: HOU at LAC
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 41-35 | 53.9% |
| 2024 | 36-43-2 | 45.6% |
| 2023 | 19-19-3 | 50.0% |
| 2022 | 29-19-1 | 60.4% |
| 2021 | 25-24-2 | 51.0% |
| 2020 | 33-25 | 56.9% |
| 2019 | 27-28-1 | 49.1% |
| 2018 | 21-20-1 | 51.2% |
| 2017 | 19-25 | 43.2% |
| 2016 | 18-22-2 | 45.0% |
| 2015 | 22-23-2 | 48.9% |
| 2014 | 27-26-1 | 50.9% |
| 2013 | 29-26-1 | 52.7% |
| 2012 | 18-24 | 42.9% |
| 2011 | 28-21-2 | 57.1% |
| 2010 | 29-26-2 | 52.7% |
| 2009 | 34-22-3 | 60.7% |
| 2008 | 30-29-1 | 50.8% |
| 2007 | 27-28 | 49.1% |
| 2006 | 31-24-1 | 56.4% |
| 2005 | 29-39-1 | 42.6% |
| 2004 | 25-17 | 59.5% |
| 2003 | 34-23-3 | 59.6% |
| 2002 | 25-24 | 51.0% |
| 2001 | 25-17-1 | 59.5% |
| 2000 | 29-34-1 | 46.0% |
| 1999 | 26-27-1 | 49.1% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL teams under .300 after week 8?
736-690-32 against the spread (51.6%) in 1,458 team-games since 1999, 492-963-3 straight up and 693-742-23 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -1.5%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 390-355 (52.3%); 2013-2025: 346-335 (50.8%).