NFL Home favorites of 3 or less: ATS Record Since 1999
Laying a field goal or less at home. 1,449 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 655-724-70 (47.5%)
Straight up: 787-661-1 (54.4%)
Over/under: 699-726-24 (49.1% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.8 points
Is it real?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 2 times, so it is consistent with luck. 1999-2012: 326-357 (47.7%); 2013-2026: 329-367 (47.3%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
This week’s games that fit
- 2026-11-08: NO vs CLE
- 2026-11-08: NE vs GB
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16-9-1 | 64.0% |
| 2025 | 24-27-1 | 47.1% |
| 2024 | 27-28-2 | 49.1% |
| 2023 | 27-28-4 | 49.1% |
| 2022 | 30-32-4 | 48.4% |
| 2021 | 16-33 | 32.7% |
| 2020 | 23-30 | 43.4% |
| 2019 | 18-21-3 | 46.2% |
| 2018 | 22-26-5 | 45.8% |
| 2017 | 22-23-4 | 48.9% |
| 2016 | 30-26-1 | 53.6% |
| 2015 | 24-29-4 | 45.3% |
| 2014 | 25-34 | 42.4% |
| 2013 | 25-21-2 | 54.3% |
| 2012 | 18-30 | 37.5% |
| 2011 | 21-29-2 | 42.0% |
| 2010 | 27-30-1 | 47.4% |
| 2009 | 14-19-4 | 42.4% |
| 2008 | 31-27-3 | 53.4% |
| 2007 | 20-24-5 | 45.5% |
| 2006 | 19-32-3 | 37.3% |
| 2005 | 42-24-6 | 63.6% |
| 2004 | 21-20-2 | 51.2% |
| 2003 | 26-28-4 | 48.1% |
| 2002 | 24-25-1 | 49.0% |
| 2001 | 22-30-4 | 42.3% |
| 2000 | 16-27-4 | 37.2% |
| 1999 | 25-12 | 67.6% |
By team
Arizona Cardinals · Atlanta Falcons · Baltimore Ravens · Buffalo Bills · Carolina Panthers · Chicago Bears · Cincinnati Bengals · Cleveland Browns · Dallas Cowboys · Denver Broncos · Detroit Lions · Green Bay Packers · Houston Texans · Indianapolis Colts · Jacksonville Jaguars · Kansas City Chiefs · Los Angeles Rams · Los Angeles Chargers · Las Vegas Raiders · Miami Dolphins · Minnesota Vikings · New England Patriots · New Orleans Saints · New York Giants · New York Jets · Philadelphia Eagles · Pittsburgh Steelers · Seattle Seahawks · San Francisco 49ers · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Tennessee Titans · Washington Commanders
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL home favorites of 3 or less?
655-724-70 against the spread (47.5%) in 1,449 team-games since 1999, 787-661-1 straight up and 699-726-24 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 2 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 326-357 (47.7%); 2013-2026: 329-367 (47.3%).