NFL Division underdogs: ATS Record Since 1999
Getting points against a division rival. 2,766 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 1405-1286-75 (52.2%)
Straight up: 914-1844-8 (33.1%)
Over/under: 1319-1403-44 (48.5% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.03 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -0.3%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2012: 741-670 (52.5%); 2013-2026: 664-616 (51.9%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
This week’s games that fit
- 2026-11-08: PHI vs NYG
- 2026-11-08: ARI at SEA
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24-16 | 60.0% |
| 2025 | 52-47 | 52.5% |
| 2024 | 53-43-2 | 55.2% |
| 2023 | 43-50-3 | 46.2% |
| 2022 | 56-43-1 | 56.6% |
| 2021 | 50-46-3 | 52.1% |
| 2020 | 58-41 | 58.6% |
| 2019 | 48-44-4 | 52.2% |
| 2018 | 48-48-1 | 50.0% |
| 2017 | 38-55-4 | 40.9% |
| 2016 | 49-46-1 | 51.6% |
| 2015 | 54-38-5 | 58.7% |
| 2014 | 51-43-3 | 54.3% |
| 2013 | 40-56-2 | 41.7% |
| 2012 | 46-47-4 | 49.5% |
| 2011 | 46-46-4 | 50.0% |
| 2010 | 52-46-1 | 53.1% |
| 2009 | 50-44-3 | 53.2% |
| 2008 | 46-50-2 | 47.9% |
| 2007 | 49-46-2 | 51.6% |
| 2006 | 60-35-3 | 63.2% |
| 2005 | 36-53-4 | 40.4% |
| 2004 | 51-43-3 | 54.3% |
| 2003 | 48-46-1 | 51.1% |
| 2002 | 49-47-1 | 51.0% |
| 2001 | 68-57-6 | 54.4% |
| 2000 | 71-56-6 | 55.9% |
| 1999 | 69-54-6 | 56.1% |
By team
Arizona Cardinals · Atlanta Falcons · Baltimore Ravens · Buffalo Bills · Carolina Panthers · Chicago Bears · Cincinnati Bengals · Cleveland Browns · Dallas Cowboys · Denver Broncos · Detroit Lions · Green Bay Packers · Houston Texans · Indianapolis Colts · Jacksonville Jaguars · Kansas City Chiefs · Los Angeles Rams · Los Angeles Chargers · Las Vegas Raiders · Miami Dolphins · Minnesota Vikings · New England Patriots · New Orleans Saints · New York Giants · New York Jets · Philadelphia Eagles · Pittsburgh Steelers · Seattle Seahawks · San Francisco 49ers · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Tennessee Titans · Washington Commanders
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL division underdogs?
1405-1286-75 against the spread (52.2%) in 2,766 team-games since 1999, 914-1844-8 straight up and 1319-1403-44 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -0.3%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 741-670 (52.5%); 2013-2026: 664-616 (51.9%).