NFL Freezing games (32°F or colder): ATS Record Since 1999
Home teams in the cold. 384 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 203-174-7 (53.8%)
Straight up: 240-143-1 (62.7%)
Over/under: 200-177-7 (53.1% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.82 points
Is it real?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 4 times, so it is consistent with luck. 1999-2012: 109-96 (53.2%); 2013-2025: 94-78 (54.7%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12-7 | 63.2% |
| 2024 | 12-6 | 66.7% |
| 2023 | 6-2 | 75.0% |
| 2022 | 8-12 | 40.0% |
| 2021 | 8-3-1 | 72.7% |
| 2020 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2019 | 3-4 | 42.9% |
| 2018 | 6-4 | 60.0% |
| 2017 | 9-10 | 47.4% |
| 2016 | 10-6 | 62.5% |
| 2015 | 4-4-1 | 50.0% |
| 2014 | 9-4 | 69.2% |
| 2013 | 6-13-1 | 31.6% |
| 2012 | 7-2 | 77.8% |
| 2011 | 4-8 | 33.3% |
| 2010 | 10-15 | 40.0% |
| 2009 | 11-6 | 64.7% |
| 2008 | 10-9-1 | 52.6% |
| 2007 | 10-3 | 76.9% |
| 2006 | 5-6 | 45.5% |
| 2005 | 8-7 | 53.3% |
| 2004 | 9-11 | 45.0% |
| 2003 | 8-7-1 | 53.3% |
| 2002 | 5-9 | 35.7% |
| 2001 | 6-6-1 | 50.0% |
| 2000 | 10-6-1 | 62.5% |
| 1999 | 6-1 | 85.7% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL freezing games (32°f or colder)?
203-174-7 against the spread (53.8%) in 384 team-games since 1999, 240-143-1 straight up and 200-177-7 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 4 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 109-96 (53.2%); 2013-2025: 94-78 (54.7%).