NFL Home favorites of 10+: ATS Record Since 1999
Laying double digits at home. 741 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 354-366-21 (49.2%)
Straight up: 635-105-1 (85.8%)
Over/under: 357-370-14 (49.1% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.62 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -2.9%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2012: 184-199 (48.0%); 2013-2026: 170-167 (50.4%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
This week’s games that fit
- 2026-11-08: SF vs LV
- 2026-11-08: SEA vs ARI
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2-5 | 28.6% |
| 2025 | 19-8 | 70.4% |
| 2024 | 10-6 | 62.5% |
| 2023 | 11-12 | 47.8% |
| 2022 | 11-17-2 | 39.3% |
| 2021 | 24-11-3 | 68.6% |
| 2020 | 9-13 | 40.9% |
| 2019 | 12-18-2 | 40.0% |
| 2018 | 11-18-1 | 37.9% |
| 2017 | 15-14 | 51.7% |
| 2016 | 11-5 | 68.8% |
| 2015 | 10-13 | 43.5% |
| 2014 | 11-10-2 | 52.4% |
| 2013 | 14-17-2 | 45.2% |
| 2012 | 16-12 | 57.1% |
| 2011 | 19-13-2 | 59.4% |
| 2010 | 11-13 | 45.8% |
| 2009 | 21-19-2 | 52.5% |
| 2008 | 10-21 | 32.3% |
| 2007 | 18-20 | 47.4% |
| 2006 | 13-22-1 | 37.1% |
| 2005 | 10-13 | 43.5% |
| 2004 | 10-11 | 47.6% |
| 2003 | 9-10 | 47.4% |
| 2002 | 8-9-1 | 47.1% |
| 2001 | 13-14-1 | 48.1% |
| 2000 | 14-11-2 | 56.0% |
| 1999 | 12-11 | 52.2% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL home favorites of 10+?
354-366-21 against the spread (49.2%) in 741 team-games since 1999, 635-105-1 straight up and 357-370-14 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -2.9%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 184-199 (48.0%); 2013-2026: 170-167 (50.4%).