NFL Windy games (15+ mph): ATS Record Since 1999
Read the over/under record here. 679 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 323-336-20 (49.0%)
Straight up: 375-302-2 (55.4%)
Over/under: 289-380-10 (43.2% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.07 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -2.7%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2012: 186-211 (46.9%); 2013-2025: 137-125 (52.3%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 11-10 | 52.4% |
| 2024 | 8-8 | 50.0% |
| 2023 | 9-4-1 | 69.2% |
| 2022 | 10-4 | 71.4% |
| 2021 | 15-15 | 50.0% |
| 2020 | 14-12 | 53.8% |
| 2019 | 12-9-1 | 57.1% |
| 2018 | 7-10 | 41.2% |
| 2017 | 10-8-2 | 55.6% |
| 2016 | 12-11 | 52.2% |
| 2015 | 5-18 | 21.7% |
| 2014 | 11-9-2 | 55.0% |
| 2013 | 13-7-1 | 65.0% |
| 2012 | 10-14-1 | 41.7% |
| 2011 | 14-14-1 | 50.0% |
| 2010 | 13-20 | 39.4% |
| 2009 | 10-7 | 58.8% |
| 2008 | 18-21-1 | 46.2% |
| 2007 | 11-12 | 47.8% |
| 2006 | 10-13-2 | 43.5% |
| 2005 | 8-17 | 32.0% |
| 2004 | 14-23-2 | 37.8% |
| 2003 | 14-10-1 | 58.3% |
| 2002 | 16-12 | 57.1% |
| 2001 | 17-20-1 | 45.9% |
| 2000 | 14-13-1 | 51.9% |
| 1999 | 17-15-3 | 53.1% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL windy games (15+ mph)?
323-336-20 against the spread (49.0%) in 679 team-games since 1999, 375-302-2 straight up and 289-380-10 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -2.7%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 186-211 (46.9%); 2013-2025: 137-125 (52.3%).