NFL Playoff underdogs: ATS Record Since 1999
Getting points in January. 308 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 165-137-6 (54.6%)
Straight up: 112-196 (36.4%)
Over/under: 146-155-7 (48.5% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.88 points
Is it real?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 5 times, so it is consistent with luck. 1999-2012: 80-71 (53.0%); 2013-2025: 85-66 (56.3%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6-7 | 46.2% |
| 2024 | 8-5 | 61.5% |
| 2023 | 9-4 | 69.2% |
| 2022 | 7-6 | 53.8% |
| 2021 | 7-6 | 53.8% |
| 2020 | 8-5 | 61.5% |
| 2019 | 4-7 | 36.4% |
| 2018 | 7-4 | 63.6% |
| 2017 | 10-1 | 90.9% |
| 2016 | 2-9 | 18.2% |
| 2015 | 5-4-2 | 55.6% |
| 2014 | 6-5 | 54.5% |
| 2013 | 6-3-1 | 66.7% |
| 2012 | 4-7 | 36.4% |
| 2011 | 7-4 | 63.6% |
| 2010 | 5-6 | 45.5% |
| 2009 | 6-5 | 54.5% |
| 2008 | 6-5 | 54.5% |
| 2007 | 8-3 | 72.7% |
| 2006 | 5-5-1 | 50.0% |
| 2005 | 5-6 | 45.5% |
| 2004 | 5-6 | 45.5% |
| 2003 | 7-4 | 63.6% |
| 2002 | 6-5 | 54.5% |
| 2001 | 5-5-1 | 50.0% |
| 2000 | 6-5 | 54.5% |
| 1999 | 5-5-1 | 50.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL playoff underdogs?
165-137-6 against the spread (54.6%) in 308 team-games since 1999, 112-196 straight up and 146-155-7 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 5 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 80-71 (53.0%); 2013-2025: 85-66 (56.3%).