NFL Home teams on a short week: ATS Record Since 1999
Five days of rest or less, at home. 312 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 154-150-8 (50.7%)
Straight up: 173-139 (55.4%)
Over/under: 152-155-5 (49.5% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.44 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -3.3%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2012: 46-41 (52.9%); 2013-2026: 108-109 (49.8%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
This week’s games that fit
- 2026-11-05: BAL vs JAX
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5-2 | 71.4% |
| 2025 | 10-10 | 50.0% |
| 2024 | 11-9 | 55.0% |
| 2023 | 8-8-2 | 50.0% |
| 2022 | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| 2021 | 6-9-1 | 40.0% |
| 2020 | 5-11 | 31.3% |
| 2019 | 7-8 | 46.7% |
| 2018 | 9-5-1 | 64.3% |
| 2017 | 8-6-1 | 57.1% |
| 2016 | 10-7 | 58.8% |
| 2015 | 7-8-1 | 46.7% |
| 2014 | 8-8 | 50.0% |
| 2013 | 6-10 | 37.5% |
| 2012 | 7-9 | 43.8% |
| 2011 | 6-4 | 60.0% |
| 2010 | 8-2 | 80.0% |
| 2009 | 4-5 | 44.4% |
| 2008 | 4-4-1 | 50.0% |
| 2007 | 3-3 | 50.0% |
| 2006 | 4-3 | 57.1% |
| 2005 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 2004 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2003 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2002 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2001 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2000 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 1999 | 4-1 | 80.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL home teams on a short week?
154-150-8 against the spread (50.7%) in 312 team-games since 1999, 173-139 straight up and 152-155-5 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -3.3%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 46-41 (52.9%); 2013-2026: 108-109 (49.8%).