NBA Betting Trends Since 2007-08
Every NBA game since 2007-08, filtered by anything known before tip-off: spread, back-to-backs, rest, travel, road trips, streaks and more. Each trend shows its record against the spread, the chance that record is luck, and whether it held up in later years.
| Trend | ATS | Cover % | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home underdogs | 3936-4070-130 | 49.2% | 4025-4020-91 |
| Home favorites | 7629-7700-252 | 49.8% | 7653-7720-208 |
| Road underdogs | 7700-7629-252 | 50.2% | 7653-7720-208 |
| Road favorites | 4070-3936-130 | 50.8% | 4025-4020-91 |
| Second night of a back-to-back | 4676-4682-149 | 50.0% | 4770-4616-121 |
| Back-to-back vs a rested team | 947-985-31 | 49.0% | 988-954-21 |
| Rested team vs a back-to-back | 2194-2225-65 | 49.6% | 2243-2175-66 |
| Third game in four nights | 6543-6599-210 | 49.8% | 6568-6618-166 |
| 5th+ game of a road trip | 627-583-23 | 51.8% | 622-593-18 |
| First home game after a road trip | 5462-5629-170 | 49.2% | 5475-5650-136 |
| After a cross-country flight | 434-468-17 | 48.1% | 454-449-16 |
| West Coast teams in the East | 611-585-20 | 51.1% | 613-594-9 |
| Off a 15+ point loss | 3492-3321-107 | 51.3% | 3443-3400-77 |
| Off a 15+ point win | 3472-3413-113 | 50.4% | 3422-3483-93 |
| Off an upset loss | 3718-3528-117 | 51.3% | 3645-3634-84 |
| After an overtime game | 1281-1385-45 | 48.0% | 1338-1338-35 |
| On a 4+ game losing streak | 2117-2115-63 | 50.0% | 2127-2125-43 |
| On a 4+ game win streak | 2079-2185-80 | 48.8% | 2125-2159-60 |
| Four straight ATS losses | 1263-1219-41 | 50.9% | 1229-1267-27 |
| Underdogs of 10+ | 2122-2031-75 | 51.1% | 2121-2056-51 |
| Home favorites of 10+ | 1640-1744-61 | 48.5% | 1716-1683-46 |
| Division underdogs | 2298-2343-82 | 49.5% | 2261-2407-55 |
| Lost the last meeting by 15+ | 3410-3363-105 | 50.3% | 3401-3402-75 |
| First 10 games of the season | 2892-2898-94 | 49.9% | 2819-2994-71 |
| Playoff underdogs | 541-614-21 | 46.8% | 553-603-20 |
| Totals of 235 or more | 749-783-17 | 48.9% | 764-767-18 |
| Line moved 1.5+ toward the team | 3220-3241-101 | 49.8% | 3290-3177-95 |
Break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Most trends land near 50%: the closing line already knows them.