NFL Rookie QBs after week 10: ATS Record Since 1999
The "rookie wall". 954 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 444-484-26 (47.8%)
Straight up: 360-593-1 (37.8%)
Over/under: 452-487-15 (48.1% overs)
Average cover margin: -1.19 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -0.4%), so there is no edge to explain. 2000-2012: 229-251 (47.7%); 2013-2025: 215-233 (48.0%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25-19 | 56.8% |
| 2024 | 18-15-1 | 54.5% |
| 2023 | 22-22-2 | 50.0% |
| 2022 | 20-8-2 | 71.4% |
| 2021 | 18-23 | 43.9% |
| 2020 | 14-13 | 51.9% |
| 2019 | 19-22-2 | 46.3% |
| 2018 | 21-21-1 | 50.0% |
| 2017 | 10-16-1 | 38.5% |
| 2016 | 12-25 | 32.4% |
| 2015 | 7-17-1 | 29.2% |
| 2014 | 17-13 | 56.7% |
| 2013 | 12-19-1 | 38.7% |
| 2012 | 35-25-1 | 58.3% |
| 2011 | 15-22-3 | 40.5% |
| 2010 | 11-19-1 | 36.7% |
| 2009 | 14-15-1 | 48.3% |
| 2008 | 16-17 | 48.5% |
| 2007 | 19-13 | 59.4% |
| 2006 | 21-20-4 | 51.2% |
| 2005 | 14-19-1 | 42.4% |
| 2004 | 14-20 | 41.2% |
| 2003 | 10-14 | 41.7% |
| 2002 | 31-33-1 | 48.4% |
| 2001 | 18-16-3 | 52.9% |
| 2000 | 11-18 | 37.9% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL rookie qbs after week 10?
444-484-26 against the spread (47.8%) in 954 team-games since 1999, 360-593-1 straight up and 452-487-15 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -0.4%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2000-2012: 229-251 (47.7%); 2013-2025: 215-233 (48.0%).