NFL Off an upset loss: ATS Record Since 1999
Lost last week as a favorite. 2,282 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 1125-1080-77 (51.0%)
Straight up: 1163-1113-6 (51.1%)
Over/under: 1105-1144-33 (49.1% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.49 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -2.6%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2012: 555-545 (50.5%); 2013-2026: 570-535 (51.6%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
This week’s games that fit
- 2026-11-08: DAL at IND
- 2026-11-08: NYJ at KC
- 2026-11-08: HOU at LAC
- 2026-11-08: SF vs LV
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16-17-4 | 48.5% |
| 2025 | 46-45 | 50.5% |
| 2024 | 48-28 | 63.2% |
| 2023 | 35-42-7 | 45.5% |
| 2022 | 41-42-7 | 49.4% |
| 2021 | 53-46-1 | 53.5% |
| 2020 | 43-39 | 52.4% |
| 2019 | 49-35-4 | 58.3% |
| 2018 | 37-46-2 | 44.6% |
| 2017 | 36-31-3 | 53.7% |
| 2016 | 44-45 | 49.4% |
| 2015 | 43-44-4 | 49.4% |
| 2014 | 42-41-1 | 50.6% |
| 2013 | 37-34 | 52.1% |
| 2012 | 41-48-2 | 46.1% |
| 2011 | 36-40-7 | 47.4% |
| 2010 | 48-35-2 | 57.8% |
| 2009 | 38-38-1 | 50.0% |
| 2008 | 37-40-3 | 48.1% |
| 2007 | 44-33-1 | 57.1% |
| 2006 | 42-53-5 | 44.2% |
| 2005 | 26-27-6 | 49.1% |
| 2004 | 38-39-2 | 49.4% |
| 2003 | 40-35-4 | 53.3% |
| 2002 | 44-45-3 | 49.4% |
| 2001 | 42-36-3 | 53.8% |
| 2000 | 41-39-2 | 51.3% |
| 1999 | 38-37-3 | 50.7% |
By team
Arizona Cardinals · Atlanta Falcons · Baltimore Ravens · Buffalo Bills · Carolina Panthers · Chicago Bears · Cincinnati Bengals · Cleveland Browns · Dallas Cowboys · Denver Broncos · Detroit Lions · Green Bay Packers · Houston Texans · Indianapolis Colts · Jacksonville Jaguars · Kansas City Chiefs · Los Angeles Rams · Los Angeles Chargers · Las Vegas Raiders · Miami Dolphins · Minnesota Vikings · New England Patriots · New Orleans Saints · New York Giants · New York Jets · Philadelphia Eagles · Pittsburgh Steelers · Seattle Seahawks · San Francisco 49ers · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Tennessee Titans · Washington Commanders
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL off an upset loss?
1125-1080-77 against the spread (51.0%) in 2,282 team-games since 1999, 1163-1113-6 straight up and 1105-1144-33 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -2.6%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 555-545 (50.5%); 2013-2026: 570-535 (51.6%).