NFL Totals of 51 or more: ATS Record Since 1999
Shootout totals: read the over/under record. 552 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 251-292-9 (46.2%)
Straight up: 309-243 (56.0%)
Over/under: 270-272-10 (49.8% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.23 points
Is it real?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 4 times, so it is consistent with luck. 1999-2012: 73-65 (52.9%); 2013-2026: 178-227 (44.0%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
This week’s games that fit
- 2026-11-08: IND vs DAL
- 2026-11-08: SF vs LV
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6-8 | 42.9% |
| 2025 | 11-10 | 52.4% |
| 2024 | 6-11-1 | 35.3% |
| 2023 | 4-7 | 36.4% |
| 2022 | 10-11-1 | 47.6% |
| 2021 | 18-31 | 36.7% |
| 2020 | 33-43 | 43.4% |
| 2019 | 9-11 | 45.0% |
| 2018 | 24-31-2 | 43.6% |
| 2017 | 8-7 | 53.3% |
| 2016 | 9-14-1 | 39.1% |
| 2015 | 8-9-1 | 47.1% |
| 2014 | 13-18 | 41.9% |
| 2013 | 19-16 | 54.3% |
| 2012 | 11-9-1 | 55.0% |
| 2011 | 13-7 | 65.0% |
| 2010 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2009 | 2-6 | 25.0% |
| 2008 | 5-5 | 50.0% |
| 2007 | 5-4 | 55.6% |
| 2006 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2005 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2004 | 13-13-1 | 50.0% |
| 2003 | 4-2 | 66.7% |
| 2002 | 3-3 | 50.0% |
| 2001 | 4-4 | 50.0% |
| 2000 | 8-7-1 | 53.3% |
| 1999 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL totals of 51 or more?
251-292-9 against the spread (46.2%) in 552 team-games since 1999, 309-243 straight up and 270-272-10 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 4 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 73-65 (52.9%); 2013-2026: 178-227 (44.0%).