NFL Line moved 1.5+ toward the team: ATS Record Since 1999
The market moved their way (2007-21). 1,311 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 650-640-21 (50.4%)
Straight up: 757-549-5 (58.0%)
Over/under: 644-653-14 (49.7% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.04 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -3.8%), so there is no edge to explain. 2010-2015: 304-287 (51.4%); 2016-2021: 346-353 (49.5%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 69-70-1 | 49.6% |
| 2020 | 64-72 | 47.1% |
| 2019 | 70-57-4 | 55.1% |
| 2018 | 47-50-2 | 48.5% |
| 2017 | 51-52-1 | 49.5% |
| 2016 | 45-52 | 46.4% |
| 2015 | 55-43-3 | 56.1% |
| 2014 | 49-54-3 | 47.6% |
| 2013 | 65-63-2 | 50.8% |
| 2012 | 39-35-2 | 52.7% |
| 2011 | 50-50-1 | 50.0% |
| 2010 | 46-42-2 | 52.3% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL line moved 1.5+ toward the team?
650-640-21 against the spread (50.4%) in 1,311 team-games since 1999, 757-549-5 straight up and 644-653-14 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -3.8%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2010-2015: 304-287 (51.4%); 2016-2021: 346-353 (49.5%).