NFL Coaches facing a former team: ATS Record Since 1999
Head coaches against a team they used to run. 101 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 50-49-2 (50.5%)
Straight up: 52-49 (51.5%)
Over/under: 63-37-1 (63.0% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.43 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -3.6%), so there is no edge to explain. 2002-2014: 20-22 (47.6%); 2015-2026: 30-27 (52.6%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2025 | 3-4 | 42.9% |
| 2024 | 5-2 | 71.4% |
| 2023 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2022 | 4-2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2021 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2020 | 3-5 | 37.5% |
| 2019 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 2018 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2017 | 4-1 | 80.0% |
| 2016 | 5-2 | 71.4% |
| 2015 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2014 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 2013 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2012 | 3-3 | 50.0% |
| 2011 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2010 | 0-4 | 0.0% |
| 2009 | 0-3-1 | 0.0% |
| 2008 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2007 | 4-1 | 80.0% |
| 2006 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2005 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2004 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2003 | 3-0 | 100.0% |
| 2002 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL coaches facing a former team?
50-49-2 against the spread (50.5%) in 101 team-games since 1999, 52-49 straight up and 63-37-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -3.6%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2002-2014: 20-22 (47.6%); 2015-2026: 30-27 (52.6%).