NFL Home underdogs: ATS Record Since 1999
Teams getting points at home. 2,501 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 1227-1205-69 (50.5%)
Straight up: 885-1609-7 (35.5%)
Over/under: 1219-1243-39 (49.5% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.03 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -3.7%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2012: 577-572 (50.2%); 2013-2026: 650-633 (50.7%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
This week’s games that fit
- 2026-11-05: BAL vs JAX
- 2026-11-08: IND vs DAL
- 2026-11-08: CAR vs DEN
- 2026-11-08: MIA vs DET
- 2026-11-08: WAS vs LA
- 2026-11-08: PHI vs NYG
- 2026-11-08: LAC vs HOU
- 2026-11-09: MIN vs BUF
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19-21-2 | 47.5% |
| 2025 | 60-54 | 52.6% |
| 2024 | 52-58-1 | 47.3% |
| 2023 | 47-52-7 | 47.5% |
| 2022 | 55-44-4 | 55.6% |
| 2021 | 55-53-1 | 50.9% |
| 2020 | 60-48 | 55.6% |
| 2019 | 45-51-2 | 46.9% |
| 2018 | 46-39-2 | 54.1% |
| 2017 | 47-47-4 | 50.0% |
| 2016 | 37-42-1 | 46.8% |
| 2015 | 43-42-3 | 50.6% |
| 2014 | 41-37-2 | 52.6% |
| 2013 | 43-45-3 | 48.9% |
| 2012 | 44-46-3 | 48.9% |
| 2011 | 45-41-5 | 52.3% |
| 2010 | 42-41-4 | 50.6% |
| 2009 | 43-47 | 47.8% |
| 2008 | 33-44-3 | 42.9% |
| 2007 | 44-46 | 48.9% |
| 2006 | 46-33-3 | 58.2% |
| 2005 | 27-50-3 | 35.1% |
| 2004 | 36-44-2 | 45.0% |
| 2003 | 38-36-2 | 51.4% |
| 2002 | 52-36-2 | 59.1% |
| 2001 | 42-35-5 | 54.5% |
| 2000 | 39-37 | 51.3% |
| 1999 | 46-36-5 | 56.1% |
By team
Arizona Cardinals · Atlanta Falcons · Baltimore Ravens · Buffalo Bills · Carolina Panthers · Chicago Bears · Cincinnati Bengals · Cleveland Browns · Dallas Cowboys · Denver Broncos · Detroit Lions · Green Bay Packers · Houston Texans · Indianapolis Colts · Jacksonville Jaguars · Kansas City Chiefs · Los Angeles Rams · Los Angeles Chargers · Las Vegas Raiders · Miami Dolphins · Minnesota Vikings · New England Patriots · New Orleans Saints · New York Giants · New York Jets · Philadelphia Eagles · Pittsburgh Steelers · Seattle Seahawks · San Francisco 49ers · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Tennessee Titans · Washington Commanders
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL home underdogs?
1227-1205-69 against the spread (50.5%) in 2,501 team-games since 1999, 885-1609-7 straight up and 1219-1243-39 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -3.7%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 577-572 (50.2%); 2013-2026: 650-633 (50.7%).