NFL Teams with a new starting QB: ATS Record Since 1999
A different starter from last game. 1,402 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 661-700-41 (48.6%)
Straight up: 548-852-2 (39.1%)
Over/under: 674-709-19 (48.7% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.71 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -1.8%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2012: 318-362 (46.8%); 2013-2026: 343-338 (50.4%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
This week’s games that fit
- 2026-11-05: BAL vs JAX
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11-8-1 | 57.9% |
| 2025 | 33-26-1 | 55.9% |
| 2024 | 29-28 | 50.9% |
| 2023 | 29-32-5 | 47.5% |
| 2022 | 35-29-2 | 54.7% |
| 2021 | 31-31-4 | 50.0% |
| 2020 | 29-26 | 52.7% |
| 2019 | 24-21-1 | 53.3% |
| 2018 | 17-18 | 48.6% |
| 2017 | 18-31-1 | 36.7% |
| 2016 | 19-26 | 42.2% |
| 2015 | 26-21-3 | 55.3% |
| 2014 | 22-19-1 | 53.7% |
| 2013 | 20-22 | 47.6% |
| 2012 | 12-15-2 | 44.4% |
| 2011 | 16-19-3 | 45.7% |
| 2010 | 35-30 | 53.8% |
| 2009 | 24-18-2 | 57.1% |
| 2008 | 21-23-2 | 47.7% |
| 2007 | 37-39-2 | 48.7% |
| 2006 | 11-17-4 | 39.3% |
| 2005 | 18-40-1 | 31.0% |
| 2004 | 23-30 | 43.4% |
| 2003 | 21-19-2 | 52.5% |
| 2002 | 24-27-1 | 47.1% |
| 2001 | 21-19-1 | 52.5% |
| 2000 | 28-32-1 | 46.7% |
| 1999 | 27-34-1 | 44.3% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL teams with a new starting qb?
661-700-41 against the spread (48.6%) in 1,402 team-games since 1999, 548-852-2 straight up and 674-709-19 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -1.8%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 318-362 (46.8%); 2013-2026: 343-338 (50.4%).