NFL Home favorites: ATS Record Since 1999
Teams laying points at home. 4,764 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 2236-2398-130 (48.3%)
Straight up: 3216-1540-8 (67.6%)
Over/under: 2331-2367-66 (49.6% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.14 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -1.2%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2012: 1162-1247 (48.2%); 2013-2026: 1074-1151 (48.3%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
This week’s games that fit
- 2026-11-02: SEA vs CHI
- 2026-11-08: NO vs CLE
- 2026-11-08: KC vs NYJ
- 2026-11-08: SF vs LV
- 2026-11-08: SEA vs ARI
- 2026-11-08: NE vs GB
- 2026-11-08: CHI vs TB
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33-36-3 | 47.8% |
| 2025 | 80-82-1 | 49.4% |
| 2024 | 87-77-3 | 53.0% |
| 2023 | 85-81-7 | 51.2% |
| 2022 | 77-91-6 | 45.8% |
| 2021 | 77-92-3 | 45.6% |
| 2020 | 71-86 | 45.2% |
| 2019 | 65-90-8 | 41.9% |
| 2018 | 76-93-7 | 45.0% |
| 2017 | 82-74-4 | 52.6% |
| 2016 | 91-86-4 | 51.4% |
| 2015 | 74-94-7 | 44.0% |
| 2014 | 84-94-4 | 47.2% |
| 2013 | 92-75-4 | 55.1% |
| 2012 | 79-91-2 | 46.5% |
| 2011 | 83-85-6 | 49.4% |
| 2010 | 85-91-1 | 48.3% |
| 2009 | 78-89-8 | 46.7% |
| 2008 | 84-97-3 | 46.4% |
| 2007 | 87-83-5 | 51.2% |
| 2006 | 79-100-5 | 44.1% |
| 2005 | 96-77-7 | 55.5% |
| 2004 | 84-92-4 | 47.7% |
| 2003 | 90-89-7 | 50.3% |
| 2002 | 79-92-3 | 46.2% |
| 2001 | 80-86-7 | 48.2% |
| 2000 | 79-91-7 | 46.5% |
| 1999 | 79-84-4 | 48.5% |
By team
Arizona Cardinals · Atlanta Falcons · Baltimore Ravens · Buffalo Bills · Carolina Panthers · Chicago Bears · Cincinnati Bengals · Cleveland Browns · Dallas Cowboys · Denver Broncos · Detroit Lions · Green Bay Packers · Houston Texans · Indianapolis Colts · Jacksonville Jaguars · Kansas City Chiefs · Los Angeles Rams · Los Angeles Chargers · Las Vegas Raiders · Miami Dolphins · Minnesota Vikings · New England Patriots · New Orleans Saints · New York Giants · New York Jets · Philadelphia Eagles · Pittsburgh Steelers · Seattle Seahawks · San Francisco 49ers · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Tennessee Titans · Washington Commanders
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL home favorites?
2236-2398-130 against the spread (48.3%) in 4,764 team-games since 1999, 3216-1540-8 straight up and 2331-2367-66 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -1.2%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 1162-1247 (48.2%); 2013-2026: 1074-1151 (48.3%).