NFL Underdogs of 7+: ATS Record Since 1999
Getting a touchdown or more. 2,230 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 1130-1040-60 (52.1%)
Straight up: 455-1769-6 (20.5%)
Over/under: 1096-1098-36 (50.0% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.63 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -0.6%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2012: 597-542 (52.4%); 2013-2026: 533-498 (51.7%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
This week’s games that fit
- 2026-11-05: BAL vs JAX
- 2026-11-08: MIA vs DET
- 2026-11-08: NYJ at KC
- 2026-11-08: LV at SF
- 2026-11-08: ARI at SEA
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19-6-3 | 76.0% |
| 2025 | 44-40 | 52.4% |
| 2024 | 35-31 | 53.0% |
| 2023 | 35-32-3 | 52.2% |
| 2022 | 43-26-3 | 62.3% |
| 2021 | 46-57-3 | 44.7% |
| 2020 | 50-43 | 53.8% |
| 2019 | 37-40-4 | 48.1% |
| 2018 | 42-36-3 | 53.8% |
| 2017 | 39-43 | 47.6% |
| 2016 | 22-34-2 | 39.3% |
| 2015 | 38-28-3 | 57.6% |
| 2014 | 42-41-4 | 50.6% |
| 2013 | 41-41-2 | 50.0% |
| 2012 | 39-35-3 | 52.7% |
| 2011 | 47-45-4 | 51.1% |
| 2010 | 37-31 | 54.4% |
| 2009 | 59-53-2 | 52.7% |
| 2008 | 44-43 | 50.6% |
| 2007 | 48-50 | 49.0% |
| 2006 | 39-40-2 | 49.4% |
| 2005 | 32-44-2 | 42.1% |
| 2004 | 48-38 | 55.8% |
| 2003 | 39-27-1 | 59.1% |
| 2002 | 38-31-2 | 55.1% |
| 2001 | 44-30-3 | 59.5% |
| 2000 | 41-38-3 | 51.9% |
| 1999 | 42-37-8 | 53.2% |
By team
Arizona Cardinals · Atlanta Falcons · Baltimore Ravens · Buffalo Bills · Carolina Panthers · Chicago Bears · Cincinnati Bengals · Cleveland Browns · Dallas Cowboys · Denver Broncos · Detroit Lions · Houston Texans · Indianapolis Colts · Jacksonville Jaguars · Kansas City Chiefs · Los Angeles Rams · Los Angeles Chargers · Las Vegas Raiders · Miami Dolphins · Minnesota Vikings · New England Patriots · New Orleans Saints · New York Giants · New York Jets · Philadelphia Eagles · Seattle Seahawks · San Francisco 49ers · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Tennessee Titans · Washington Commanders
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL underdogs of 7+?
1130-1040-60 against the spread (52.1%) in 2,230 team-games since 1999, 455-1769-6 straight up and 1096-1098-36 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -0.6%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 597-542 (52.4%); 2013-2026: 533-498 (51.7%).