NFL Off a 14+ point win: ATS Record Since 1999
The letdown spot. 2,540 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 1217-1258-65 (49.2%)
Straight up: 1431-1106-3 (56.4%)
Over/under: 1254-1244-42 (50.2% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.12 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -3.0%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2012: 623-643 (49.2%); 2013-2026: 594-615 (49.1%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
This week’s games that fit
- 2026-11-02: SEA vs CHI
- 2026-11-05: JAX at BAL
- 2026-11-08: WAS vs LA
- 2026-11-08: LA at WAS
- 2026-11-08: SEA vs ARI
- 2026-11-08: TB at CHI
- 2026-11-09: BUF at MIN
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11-18-1 | 37.9% |
| 2025 | 51-45-1 | 53.1% |
| 2024 | 47-48 | 49.5% |
| 2023 | 46-55-3 | 45.5% |
| 2022 | 35-42 | 45.5% |
| 2021 | 48-54-1 | 47.1% |
| 2020 | 46-43 | 51.7% |
| 2019 | 45-46-6 | 49.5% |
| 2018 | 41-45-3 | 47.7% |
| 2017 | 47-42-3 | 52.8% |
| 2016 | 40-39-1 | 50.6% |
| 2015 | 40-42-4 | 48.8% |
| 2014 | 50-55-2 | 47.6% |
| 2013 | 47-41-2 | 53.4% |
| 2012 | 46-47-2 | 49.5% |
| 2011 | 42-49-4 | 46.2% |
| 2010 | 37-56-2 | 39.8% |
| 2009 | 51-47-2 | 52.0% |
| 2008 | 43-52-2 | 45.3% |
| 2007 | 45-51-3 | 46.9% |
| 2006 | 42-49-3 | 46.2% |
| 2005 | 46-44-1 | 51.1% |
| 2004 | 51-42 | 54.8% |
| 2003 | 39-48-4 | 44.8% |
| 2002 | 50-36-2 | 58.1% |
| 2001 | 32-45-4 | 41.6% |
| 2000 | 52-37-5 | 58.4% |
| 1999 | 47-40-4 | 54.0% |
By team
Arizona Cardinals · Atlanta Falcons · Baltimore Ravens · Buffalo Bills · Carolina Panthers · Chicago Bears · Cincinnati Bengals · Cleveland Browns · Dallas Cowboys · Denver Broncos · Detroit Lions · Green Bay Packers · Houston Texans · Indianapolis Colts · Jacksonville Jaguars · Kansas City Chiefs · Los Angeles Rams · Los Angeles Chargers · Las Vegas Raiders · Miami Dolphins · Minnesota Vikings · New England Patriots · New Orleans Saints · New York Giants · New York Jets · Philadelphia Eagles · Pittsburgh Steelers · Seattle Seahawks · San Francisco 49ers · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Tennessee Titans · Washington Commanders
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL off a 14+ point win?
1217-1258-65 against the spread (49.2%) in 2,540 team-games since 1999, 1431-1106-3 straight up and 1254-1244-42 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -3.0%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 623-643 (49.2%); 2013-2026: 594-615 (49.1%).