NFL Off a 14+ point loss: ATS Record Since 1999
The bounce-back spot. 2,357 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 1152-1145-60 (50.2%)
Straight up: 977-1372-8 (41.6%)
Over/under: 1123-1202-32 (48.3% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.23 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -4.3%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2012: 582-588 (49.7%); 2013-2026: 570-557 (50.6%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
This week’s games that fit
- 2026-11-05: BAL vs JAX
- 2026-11-08: ATL vs CIN
- 2026-11-08: CLE at NO
- 2026-11-08: IND vs DAL
- 2026-11-08: PHI vs NYG
- 2026-11-08: LAC vs HOU
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18-12-1 | 60.0% |
| 2025 | 49-42 | 53.8% |
| 2024 | 39-47-1 | 45.3% |
| 2023 | 42-52-5 | 44.7% |
| 2022 | 36-31-3 | 53.7% |
| 2021 | 51-46 | 52.6% |
| 2020 | 42-40 | 51.2% |
| 2019 | 41-45-4 | 47.7% |
| 2018 | 42-37-1 | 53.2% |
| 2017 | 47-41-2 | 53.4% |
| 2016 | 33-40-2 | 45.2% |
| 2015 | 40-38-2 | 51.3% |
| 2014 | 53-43-3 | 55.2% |
| 2013 | 37-43-2 | 46.3% |
| 2012 | 50-37-1 | 57.5% |
| 2011 | 35-49-2 | 41.7% |
| 2010 | 48-40-2 | 54.5% |
| 2009 | 45-47-3 | 48.9% |
| 2008 | 50-41 | 54.9% |
| 2007 | 48-48-1 | 50.0% |
| 2006 | 47-39-3 | 54.7% |
| 2005 | 34-42-6 | 44.7% |
| 2004 | 44-40-2 | 52.4% |
| 2003 | 38-44-3 | 46.3% |
| 2002 | 43-33-3 | 56.6% |
| 2001 | 28-38-2 | 42.4% |
| 2000 | 40-40-3 | 50.0% |
| 1999 | 32-50-3 | 39.0% |
By team
Arizona Cardinals · Atlanta Falcons · Baltimore Ravens · Buffalo Bills · Carolina Panthers · Chicago Bears · Cincinnati Bengals · Cleveland Browns · Dallas Cowboys · Denver Broncos · Detroit Lions · Green Bay Packers · Houston Texans · Indianapolis Colts · Jacksonville Jaguars · Kansas City Chiefs · Los Angeles Rams · Los Angeles Chargers · Las Vegas Raiders · Miami Dolphins · Minnesota Vikings · New England Patriots · New Orleans Saints · New York Giants · New York Jets · Philadelphia Eagles · Pittsburgh Steelers · Seattle Seahawks · San Francisco 49ers · Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Tennessee Titans · Washington Commanders
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL off a 14+ point loss?
1152-1145-60 against the spread (50.2%) in 2,357 team-games since 1999, 977-1372-8 straight up and 1123-1202-32 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -4.3%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 582-588 (49.7%); 2013-2026: 570-557 (50.6%).