NFL Betting Trends Since 1999
Every NFL game since 1999, filtered by anything known before kickoff: spread, rest, travel, weather, coaches, quarterbacks and more. Each trend shows its record against the spread, the chance that record is luck, and whether it held up in later years.
| Trend | ATS | Cover % | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home underdogs | 1227-1205-69 | 50.5% | 1219-1243-39 |
| Home favorites | 2236-2398-130 | 48.3% | 2331-2367-66 |
| Road underdogs | 2398-2236-130 | 51.7% | 2331-2367-66 |
| Thursday night home teams | 140-126-8 | 52.6% | 130-139-5 |
| Home teams on a short week | 154-150-8 | 50.7% | 152-155-5 |
| Road favorites | 1205-1227-69 | 49.5% | 1219-1243-39 |
| Teams off a bye | 509-501-23 | 50.4% | 492-529-12 |
| Road teams on a short week | 151-152-8 | 49.8% | 151-155-5 |
| Division underdogs | 1405-1286-75 | 52.2% | 1319-1403-44 |
| Home favorites of 10+ | 354-366-21 | 49.2% | 357-370-14 |
| Underdogs of 7+ | 1130-1040-60 | 52.1% | 1096-1098-36 |
| Thursday night road teams | 126-140-8 | 47.4% | 130-139-5 |
| Monday night home teams | 218-232-12 | 48.4% | 220-235-7 |
| Sunday night favorites | 220-221-10 | 49.9% | 213-229-9 |
| West Coast teams in early East games | 148-141-7 | 51.2% | 147-143-6 |
| Off an upset loss | 1125-1080-77 | 51.0% | 1105-1144-33 |
| Off a 14+ point loss | 1152-1145-60 | 50.2% | 1123-1202-32 |
| Off a 14+ point win | 1217-1258-65 | 49.2% | 1254-1244-42 |
| After an overtime game | 403-414-23 | 49.3% | 411-420-9 |
| Three straight ATS losses | 651-609-43 | 51.7% | 630-652-21 |
| On a 3+ game win streak | 1027-1022-46 | 50.1% | 1026-1035-34 |
| Teams under .300 after week 8 | 736-690-32 | 51.6% | 693-742-23 |
| Lost the last meeting by 14+ | 1192-1177-66 | 50.3% | 1212-1187-36 |
| Division rematches | 1355-1355-72 | 50.0% | 1362-1368-52 |
| Coaches facing a former team | 50-49-2 | 50.5% | 63-37-1 |
| Teams with a new starting QB | 661-700-41 | 48.6% | 674-709-19 |
| Rookie QBs after week 10 | 444-484-26 | 47.8% | 452-487-15 |
| Three or more extra days of rest | 718-691-32 | 51.0% | 713-706-22 |
| Playoff underdogs | 165-137-6 | 54.6% | 146-155-7 |
| Freezing games (32°F or colder) | 203-174-7 | 53.8% | 200-177-7 |
| Windy games (15+ mph) | 323-336-20 | 49.0% | 289-380-10 |
| Totals of 51 or more | 251-292-9 | 46.2% | 270-272-10 |
| Line moved 1.5+ toward the team | 650-640-21 | 50.4% | 644-653-14 |
| Home favorites of 3 or less | 655-723-70 | 47.5% | 698-726-24 |
Break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Most trends land near 50%: the closing line already knows them.