NFL Home favorites of 3 or less: Kansas City Chiefs: ATS Record Since 1999
Laying a field goal or less at home. 48 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 20-27-1 (42.6%)
Straight up: 24-24 (50.0%)
Over/under: 19-29 (39.6% overs)
Average cover margin: -1.48 points
Is it real?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 4 times, so it is consistent with luck. 1999-2013: 8-19 (29.6%); 2014-2026: 12-8 (60.0%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2025 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2024 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2023 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2022 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2021 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2020 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2018 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2017 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2016 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2015 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2014 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2013 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2012 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2011 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2009 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2007 | 0-2-1 | 0.0% |
| 2006 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2005 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2004 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2003 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2002 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2001 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2000 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 1999 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL home favorites of 3 or less for the Kansas City Chiefs?
20-27-1 against the spread (42.6%) in 48 team-games since 1999, 24-24 straight up and 19-29 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 4 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
1999-2013: 8-19 (29.6%); 2014-2026: 12-8 (60.0%).