NFL Home favorites of 3 or less: San Francisco 49ers: ATS Record Since 1999
Laying a field goal or less at home. 37 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 15-22 (40.5%)
Straight up: 20-17 (54.1%)
Over/under: 18-19 (48.6% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.53 points
Is it real?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 5 times, so it is consistent with luck. 1999-2012: 10-10 (50.0%); 2013-2026: 5-12 (29.4%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2025 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2024 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2022 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2021 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2019 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2018 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2017 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2016 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2014 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2013 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2012 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2011 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2010 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2009 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2008 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2006 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2004 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2003 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2002 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2001 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2000 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 1999 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL home favorites of 3 or less for the San Francisco 49ers?
15-22 against the spread (40.5%) in 37 team-games since 1999, 20-17 straight up and 18-19 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 5 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 10-10 (50.0%); 2013-2026: 5-12 (29.4%).