NFL Home favorites of 3 or less: Chicago Bears: ATS Record Since 1999
Laying a field goal or less at home. 56 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 27-24-5 (52.9%)
Straight up: 32-24 (57.1%)
Over/under: 33-23 (58.9% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.04 points
Is it real?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 2 times, so it is consistent with luck. 2000-2012: 17-16 (51.5%); 2013-2026: 10-8 (55.6%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2025 | 1-0-1 | 100.0% |
| 2024 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2023 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2022 | 0-1-1 | 0.0% |
| 2021 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2020 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2018 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2017 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2016 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2014 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2013 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2012 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2011 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2010 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2009 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2008 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2007 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2006 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2005 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2004 | 1-4 | 20.0% |
| 2003 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2002 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2001 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2000 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL home favorites of 3 or less for the Chicago Bears?
27-24-5 against the spread (52.9%) in 56 team-games since 1999, 32-24 straight up and 33-23 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 2 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
2000-2012: 17-16 (51.5%); 2013-2026: 10-8 (55.6%).