NFL Home favorites of 3 or less: Houston Texans: ATS Record Since 1999
Laying a field goal or less at home. 37 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 16-19-2 (45.7%)
Straight up: 21-16 (56.8%)
Over/under: 14-23 (37.8% overs)
Average cover margin: -3.36 points
Is it real?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 2 times, so it is consistent with luck. 2002-2014: 10-10 (50.0%); 2016-2026: 6-9 (40.0%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2025 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2024 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2023 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2021 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2019 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2018 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2017 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2016 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2014 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2010 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2009 | 0-0-1 | — |
| 2008 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2007 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2006 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2005 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2004 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2003 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2002 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL home favorites of 3 or less for the Houston Texans?
16-19-2 against the spread (45.7%) in 37 team-games since 1999, 21-16 straight up and 14-23 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 2 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
2002-2014: 10-10 (50.0%); 2016-2026: 6-9 (40.0%).