NFL Home favorites of 3 or less: Miami Dolphins: ATS Record Since 1999
Laying a field goal or less at home. 54 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 25-28-1 (47.2%)
Straight up: 27-27 (50.0%)
Over/under: 25-28-1 (47.2% overs)
Average cover margin: -2.72 points
Is it real?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 2 times, so it is consistent with luck. 1999-2011: 15-18 (45.5%); 2013-2025: 10-10 (50.0%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2024 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2023 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2022 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2021 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2020 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2018 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2017 | 0-0-1 | — |
| 2016 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2015 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2014 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2013 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2011 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2010 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2009 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2008 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2007 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2006 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2005 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2004 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2003 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2002 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2001 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2000 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 1999 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL home favorites of 3 or less for the Miami Dolphins?
25-28-1 against the spread (47.2%) in 54 team-games since 1999, 27-27 straight up and 25-28-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 2 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
1999-2011: 15-18 (45.5%); 2013-2025: 10-10 (50.0%).