NFL Home favorites of 3 or less: Los Angeles Chargers: ATS Record Since 1999
Laying a field goal or less at home. 42 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 15-24-3 (38.5%)
Straight up: 19-23 (45.2%)
Over/under: 17-25 (40.5% overs)
Average cover margin: -3.74 points
Is it real?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 8 times, so it is consistent with luck. 1999-2014: 3-13 (18.8%); 2015-2025: 12-11 (52.2%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3-3 | 50.0% |
| 2024 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2023 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2022 | 0-0-1 | — |
| 2021 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2020 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2019 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2017 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2016 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2015 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2014 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2012 | 0-4 | 0.0% |
| 2010 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2009 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2008 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2005 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2004 | 0-0-1 | — |
| 2003 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2002 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2001 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 1999 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL home favorites of 3 or less for the Los Angeles Chargers?
15-24-3 against the spread (38.5%) in 42 team-games since 1999, 19-23 straight up and 17-25 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 8 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
1999-2014: 3-13 (18.8%); 2015-2025: 12-11 (52.2%).