NFL Home favorites of 3 or less: Dallas Cowboys: ATS Record Since 1999
Laying a field goal or less at home. 39 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 13-25-1 (34.2%)
Straight up: 19-20 (48.7%)
Over/under: 23-15-1 (60.5% overs)
Average cover margin: -3.13 points
Is it real?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 22 times. 1999-2012: 8-12 (40.0%); 2014-2025: 5-13 (27.8%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2022 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2021 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2020 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 2019 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2018 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2017 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2016 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2015 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2014 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2012 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2011 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2009 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2008 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2006 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2005 | 0-1-1 | 0.0% |
| 2004 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2003 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2002 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2001 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 1999 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL home favorites of 3 or less for the Dallas Cowboys?
13-25-1 against the spread (34.2%) in 39 team-games since 1999, 19-20 straight up and 23-15-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 22 times.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 8-12 (40.0%); 2014-2025: 5-13 (27.8%).