NFL Home favorites of 3 or less: New England Patriots: ATS Record Since 1999
Laying a field goal or less at home. 38 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 17-18-3 (48.6%)
Straight up: 21-17 (55.3%)
Over/under: 16-21-1 (43.2% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.54 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -1.8%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2009: 9-9 (50.0%); 2010-2025: 8-9 (47.1%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
This week’s games that fit
- 2026-11-08: NE vs GB
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2023 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 2022 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2021 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2020 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2019 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2017 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2016 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2013 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2010 | 0-0-1 | — |
| 2009 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2008 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2006 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2005 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2004 | 1-0-1 | 100.0% |
| 2003 | 3-0 | 100.0% |
| 2002 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2001 | 1-0-1 | 100.0% |
| 2000 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 1999 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL home favorites of 3 or less for the New England Patriots?
17-18-3 against the spread (48.6%) in 38 team-games since 1999, 21-17 straight up and 16-21-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -1.8%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2009: 9-9 (50.0%); 2010-2025: 8-9 (47.1%).