NFL Home favorites of 3 or less: Detroit Lions: ATS Record Since 1999
Laying a field goal or less at home. 42 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 22-18-2 (55.0%)
Straight up: 27-15 (64.3%)
Over/under: 28-14 (66.7% overs)
Average cover margin: 1.83 points
Is it real?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 3 times, so it is consistent with luck. 2000-2013: 10-10 (50.0%); 2014-2026: 12-8 (60.0%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2025 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2024 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2023 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2022 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2020 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2018 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2017 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2016 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2015 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2014 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2013 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2012 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2010 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2007 | 2-0-1 | 100.0% |
| 2006 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2005 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2004 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2003 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2002 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2001 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2000 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL home favorites of 3 or less for the Detroit Lions?
22-18-2 against the spread (55.0%) in 42 team-games since 1999, 27-15 straight up and 28-14 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 3 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
2000-2013: 10-10 (50.0%); 2014-2026: 12-8 (60.0%).