NFL Home favorites of 3 or less: Washington Commanders: ATS Record Since 1999
Laying a field goal or less at home. 45 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 23-20-2 (53.5%)
Straight up: 26-19 (57.8%)
Over/under: 27-16-2 (62.8% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.92 points
Is it real?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 2 times, so it is consistent with luck. 1999-2013: 14-10 (58.3%); 2014-2025: 9-10 (47.4%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2024 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2022 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2021 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2020 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2019 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2018 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2017 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2016 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2015 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 2014 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2013 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2012 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2008 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2007 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2005 | 3-0 | 100.0% |
| 2004 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2003 | 0-1-1 | 0.0% |
| 2002 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2001 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2000 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 1999 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL home favorites of 3 or less for the Washington Commanders?
23-20-2 against the spread (53.5%) in 45 team-games since 1999, 26-19 straight up and 27-16-2 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 2 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
1999-2013: 14-10 (58.3%); 2014-2025: 9-10 (47.4%).