NFL Home favorites of 3 or less: Atlanta Falcons: ATS Record Since 1999
Laying a field goal or less at home. 52 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 17-34-1 (33.3%)
Straight up: 23-29 (44.2%)
Over/under: 24-27-1 (47.1% overs)
Average cover margin: -3.4 points
Is it real?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 57 times. 1999-2012: 11-14 (44.0%); 2013-2025: 6-20 (23.1%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2024 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2023 | 1-4 | 20.0% |
| 2022 | 0-0-1 | — |
| 2021 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2020 | 0-4 | 0.0% |
| 2018 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2017 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2016 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2015 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2014 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2013 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2012 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2011 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2010 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2008 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2006 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2005 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2004 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2003 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2002 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2001 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2000 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 1999 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL home favorites of 3 or less for the Atlanta Falcons?
17-34-1 against the spread (33.3%) in 52 team-games since 1999, 23-29 straight up and 24-27-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 57 times.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 11-14 (44.0%); 2013-2025: 6-20 (23.1%).