NFL Home favorites of 3 or less: Buffalo Bills: ATS Record Since 1999
Laying a field goal or less at home. 50 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 30-19-1 (61.2%)
Straight up: 32-18 (64.0%)
Over/under: 19-31 (38.0% overs)
Average cover margin: 2.79 points
Is it real?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 10 times, so it is consistent with luck. 1999-2013: 19-9 (67.9%); 2014-2026: 11-10 (52.4%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2025 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2024 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2023 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2021 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2020 | 3-0 | 100.0% |
| 2019 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2018 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2017 | 1-0-1 | 100.0% |
| 2016 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2015 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2014 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2013 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2012 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2011 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2010 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2008 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2006 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2005 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2004 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2003 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2002 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2000 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 1999 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL home favorites of 3 or less for the Buffalo Bills?
30-19-1 against the spread (61.2%) in 50 team-games since 1999, 32-18 straight up and 19-31 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 10 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
1999-2013: 19-9 (67.9%); 2014-2026: 11-10 (52.4%).