NFL Home favorites of 3 or less: Pittsburgh Steelers: ATS Record Since 1999
Laying a field goal or less at home. 43 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 21-21-1 (50.0%)
Straight up: 23-20 (53.5%)
Over/under: 22-20-1 (52.4% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.48 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -4.5%), so there is no edge to explain. 1999-2014: 9-13 (40.9%); 2015-2026: 12-8 (60.0%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2025 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2024 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2023 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2022 | 3-2 | 60.0% |
| 2021 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2020 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2019 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2018 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2016 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2015 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2014 | 4-1 | 80.0% |
| 2013 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2011 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2010 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2009 | 0-1-1 | 0.0% |
| 2008 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2006 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2005 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2003 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2001 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2000 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 1999 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL home favorites of 3 or less for the Pittsburgh Steelers?
21-21-1 against the spread (50.0%) in 43 team-games since 1999, 23-20 straight up and 22-20-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -4.5%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
1999-2014: 9-13 (40.9%); 2015-2026: 12-8 (60.0%).