NFL Home favorites of 3 or less: Denver Broncos: ATS Record Since 1999
Laying a field goal or less at home. 48 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 23-20-5 (53.5%)
Straight up: 30-18 (62.5%)
Over/under: 27-21 (56.3% overs)
Average cover margin: 2.16 points
Is it real?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 2 times, so it is consistent with luck. 1999-2011: 11-8 (57.9%); 2012-2026: 12-12 (50.0%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3-0 | 100.0% |
| 2025 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2024 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2023 | 2-3 | 40.0% |
| 2022 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2021 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 2019 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2018 | 0-2-1 | 0.0% |
| 2017 | 0-2-1 | 0.0% |
| 2016 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2012 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2011 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2010 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2009 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2008 | 0-0-1 | — |
| 2007 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2006 | 0-3 | 0.0% |
| 2005 | 4-0-1 | 100.0% |
| 2004 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2003 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2001 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2000 | 0-0-1 | — |
| 1999 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL home favorites of 3 or less for the Denver Broncos?
23-20-5 against the spread (53.5%) in 48 team-games since 1999, 30-18 straight up and 27-21 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 2 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
1999-2011: 11-8 (57.9%); 2012-2026: 12-12 (50.0%).