NFL Home favorites of 3 or less: Green Bay Packers: ATS Record Since 1999
Laying a field goal or less at home. 31 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 16-14-1 (53.3%)
Straight up: 18-13 (58.1%)
Over/under: 17-14 (54.8% overs)
Average cover margin: 1.18 points
Is it real?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 2 times, so it is consistent with luck. 2000-2014: 8-7 (53.3%); 2015-2025: 8-7 (53.3%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2024 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2023 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2022 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2021 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2020 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2019 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2017 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2015 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2014 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2010 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2008 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2007 | 0-1-1 | 0.0% |
| 2006 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2005 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2004 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2003 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2000 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL home favorites of 3 or less for the Green Bay Packers?
16-14-1 against the spread (53.3%) in 31 team-games since 1999, 18-13 straight up and 17-14 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 2 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
2000-2014: 8-7 (53.3%); 2015-2025: 8-7 (53.3%).