NFL Home favorites of 3 or less: New Orleans Saints: ATS Record Since 1999
Laying a field goal or less at home. 41 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 15-24-2 (38.5%)
Straight up: 18-23 (43.9%)
Over/under: 24-17 (58.5% overs)
Average cover margin: -2.18 points
Is it real?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 8 times, so it is consistent with luck. 1999-2012: 7-11 (38.9%); 2013-2026: 8-13 (38.1%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
This week’s games that fit
- 2026-11-08: NO vs CLE
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2025 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2024 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2023 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2022 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2020 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2019 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2018 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2016 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2015 | 2-1-1 | 66.7% |
| 2014 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2013 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2012 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2010 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2009 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2008 | 3-1 | 75.0% |
| 2007 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2006 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2005 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2004 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2003 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2002 | 1-0-1 | 100.0% |
| 2000 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 1999 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL home favorites of 3 or less for the New Orleans Saints?
15-24-2 against the spread (38.5%) in 41 team-games since 1999, 18-23 straight up and 24-17 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 8 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
1999-2012: 7-11 (38.9%); 2013-2026: 8-13 (38.1%).