NFL Home favorites of 3 or less: Indianapolis Colts: ATS Record Since 1999
Laying a field goal or less at home. 48 team-games since 1999.
Against the spread: 25-21-2 (54.3%)
Straight up: 27-21 (56.3%)
Over/under: 25-22-1 (53.2% overs)
Average cover margin: 1.29 points
Is it real?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 3 times, so it is consistent with luck. 1999-2014: 9-12 (42.9%); 2015-2025: 16-9 (64.0%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2024 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2023 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2022 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2021 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2020 | 1-2 | 33.3% |
| 2019 | 3-0 | 100.0% |
| 2018 | 2-0-1 | 100.0% |
| 2017 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2016 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2015 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2014 | 2-2 | 50.0% |
| 2013 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2012 | 2-1 | 66.7% |
| 2011 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2010 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2009 | 0-1-1 | 0.0% |
| 2003 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2002 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2001 | 1-3 | 25.0% |
| 2000 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 1999 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NFL home favorites of 3 or less for the Indianapolis Colts?
25-21-2 against the spread (54.3%) in 48 team-games since 1999, 27-21 straight up and 25-22-1 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
A bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 3 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
1999-2014: 9-12 (42.9%); 2015-2025: 16-9 (64.0%).