NBA First home game after a road trip: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The "back home" spot. 11,262 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 5462-5629-170 (49.2%)
Straight up: 6489-4773 (57.6%)
Over/under: 5475-5650-136 (49.2% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.14 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -3.1%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 3113-3185 (49.4%); 2018-2027: 2349-2444 (49.0%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
Upcoming games that fit
- 2026-11-02: CLE vs OKC
- 2026-11-02: NY vs BKN
- 2026-11-02: PHI vs CHI
- 2026-11-02: MIN vs MIL
- 2026-11-02: DEN vs POR
- 2026-11-02: LAC vs TOR
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 20-26 | 43.5% |
| 2026 | 271-267-3 | 50.4% |
| 2025 | 258-269-8 | 49.0% |
| 2024 | 227-265-6 | 46.1% |
| 2023 | 248-252-5 | 49.6% |
| 2022 | 272-290-12 | 48.4% |
| 2021 | 219-253-5 | 46.4% |
| 2020 | 231-229-10 | 50.2% |
| 2019 | 309-296-8 | 51.1% |
| 2018 | 294-297-14 | 49.7% |
| 2017 | 310-307-10 | 50.2% |
| 2016 | 328-302-8 | 52.1% |
| 2015 | 314-327-12 | 49.0% |
| 2014 | 307-349-10 | 46.8% |
| 2013 | 307-329-8 | 48.3% |
| 2012 | 262-259-3 | 50.3% |
| 2011 | 311-327-12 | 48.7% |
| 2010 | 302-340-15 | 47.0% |
| 2009 | 333-335-10 | 49.9% |
| 2008 | 339-310-11 | 52.2% |
By team
Atlanta Hawks · Brooklyn Nets · Boston Celtics · Charlotte Hornets · Chicago Bulls · Cleveland Cavaliers · Dallas Mavericks · Denver Nuggets · Detroit Pistons · Golden State Warriors · Houston Rockets · Indiana Pacers · LA Clippers · Los Angeles Lakers · Memphis Grizzlies · Miami Heat · Milwaukee Bucks · Minnesota Timberwolves · New Orleans Pelicans · New York Knicks · Oklahoma City Thunder · Orlando Magic · Philadelphia 76ers · Phoenix Suns · Portland Trail Blazers · San Antonio Spurs · Sacramento Kings · Toronto Raptors · Utah Jazz · Washington Wizards
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA first home game after a road trip?
5462-5629-170 against the spread (49.2%) in 11,262 team-games since 2007-08, 6489-4773 straight up and 5475-5650-136 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -3.1%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 3113-3185 (49.4%); 2018-2027: 2349-2444 (49.0%).