NBA First home game after a road trip: Portland Trail Blazers: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The "back home" spot. 318 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 156-157-5 (49.8%)
Straight up: 191-127 (60.1%)
Over/under: 167-147-4 (53.2% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.07 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -4.2%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 89-90 (49.7%); 2018-2027: 67-67 (50.0%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2026 | 10-5 | 66.7% |
| 2025 | 6-8 | 42.9% |
| 2024 | 6-7 | 46.2% |
| 2023 | 6-9 | 40.0% |
| 2022 | 6-7 | 46.2% |
| 2021 | 5-9 | 35.7% |
| 2020 | 7-8 | 46.7% |
| 2019 | 11-8 | 57.9% |
| 2018 | 10-5-2 | 66.7% |
| 2017 | 7-9 | 43.8% |
| 2016 | 9-11 | 45.0% |
| 2015 | 9-12 | 42.9% |
| 2014 | 10-11 | 47.6% |
| 2013 | 5-11-1 | 31.3% |
| 2012 | 8-7 | 53.3% |
| 2011 | 12-5-1 | 70.6% |
| 2010 | 10-9-1 | 52.6% |
| 2009 | 10-8 | 55.6% |
| 2008 | 9-7 | 56.3% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA first home game after a road trip for the Portland Trail Blazers?
156-157-5 against the spread (49.8%) in 318 team-games since 2007-08, 191-127 straight up and 167-147-4 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -4.2%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 89-90 (49.7%); 2018-2027: 67-67 (50.0%).