NBA First home game after a road trip: Miami Heat: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The "back home" spot. 361 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 168-188-5 (47.2%)
Straight up: 230-131 (63.7%)
Over/under: 182-176-3 (50.8% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.54 points
Is it real?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 2 times, so it is consistent with luck. 2008-2017: 91-115 (44.2%); 2018-2027: 77-73 (51.3%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2026 | 10-10 | 50.0% |
| 2025 | 10-5 | 66.7% |
| 2024 | 5-11 | 31.3% |
| 2023 | 6-8 | 42.9% |
| 2022 | 11-9 | 55.0% |
| 2021 | 8-7 | 53.3% |
| 2020 | 13-3 | 81.3% |
| 2019 | 5-10-1 | 33.3% |
| 2018 | 8-9 | 47.1% |
| 2017 | 9-9 | 50.0% |
| 2016 | 14-9 | 60.9% |
| 2015 | 8-11-1 | 42.1% |
| 2014 | 9-13 | 40.9% |
| 2013 | 5-14 | 26.3% |
| 2012 | 13-5-1 | 72.2% |
| 2011 | 11-16-1 | 40.7% |
| 2010 | 8-10 | 44.4% |
| 2009 | 10-13 | 43.5% |
| 2008 | 4-15-1 | 21.1% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA first home game after a road trip for the Miami Heat?
168-188-5 against the spread (47.2%) in 361 team-games since 2007-08, 230-131 straight up and 182-176-3 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 2 times, so it is consistent with luck.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 91-115 (44.2%); 2018-2027: 77-73 (51.3%).