NBA First home game after a road trip: Atlanta Hawks: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The "back home" spot. 417 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 204-211-2 (49.2%)
Straight up: 244-173 (58.5%)
Over/under: 206-208-3 (49.8% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.66 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -2.9%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 122-114 (51.7%); 2018-2027: 82-97 (45.8%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0-2 | 0.0% |
| 2026 | 8-12 | 40.0% |
| 2025 | 8-13 | 38.1% |
| 2024 | 6-13 | 31.6% |
| 2023 | 10-9 | 52.6% |
| 2022 | 14-9 | 60.9% |
| 2021 | 11-10 | 52.4% |
| 2020 | 11-6-1 | 64.7% |
| 2019 | 5-12 | 29.4% |
| 2018 | 9-11 | 45.0% |
| 2017 | 9-14 | 39.1% |
| 2016 | 12-12 | 50.0% |
| 2015 | 17-12 | 58.6% |
| 2014 | 13-12 | 52.0% |
| 2013 | 11-12 | 47.8% |
| 2012 | 9-7 | 56.3% |
| 2011 | 14-14 | 50.0% |
| 2010 | 14-11 | 56.0% |
| 2009 | 11-10-1 | 52.4% |
| 2008 | 12-10 | 54.5% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA first home game after a road trip for the Atlanta Hawks?
204-211-2 against the spread (49.2%) in 417 team-games since 2007-08, 244-173 straight up and 206-208-3 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -2.9%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 122-114 (51.7%); 2018-2027: 82-97 (45.8%).