NBA First home game after a road trip: Oklahoma City Thunder: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The "back home" spot. 386 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 191-184-11 (50.9%)
Straight up: 247-139 (64.0%)
Over/under: 183-196-7 (48.3% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.6 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -2.8%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 114-102 (52.8%); 2018-2027: 77-82 (48.4%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2026 | 6-12 | 33.3% |
| 2025 | 13-4-1 | 76.5% |
| 2024 | 10-7 | 58.8% |
| 2023 | 9-9 | 50.0% |
| 2022 | 8-7-4 | 53.3% |
| 2021 | 3-9 | 25.0% |
| 2020 | 7-10 | 41.2% |
| 2019 | 13-10 | 56.5% |
| 2018 | 7-14-1 | 33.3% |
| 2017 | 12-8 | 60.0% |
| 2016 | 14-13-1 | 51.9% |
| 2015 | 9-13 | 40.9% |
| 2014 | 13-11-1 | 54.2% |
| 2013 | 14-11 | 56.0% |
| 2012 | 12-7 | 63.2% |
| 2011 | 12-12 | 50.0% |
| 2010 | 10-12 | 45.5% |
| 2009 | 12-7-2 | 63.2% |
| 2008 | 6-8-1 | 42.9% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA first home game after a road trip for the Oklahoma City Thunder?
191-184-11 against the spread (50.9%) in 386 team-games since 2007-08, 247-139 straight up and 183-196-7 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -2.8%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 114-102 (52.8%); 2018-2027: 77-82 (48.4%).