NBA First home game after a road trip: New Orleans Pelicans: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The "back home" spot. 365 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 185-176-4 (51.2%)
Straight up: 195-170 (53.4%)
Over/under: 172-186-7 (48.0% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.24 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -2.2%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 103-99 (51.0%); 2018-2027: 82-77 (51.6%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0-1 | 0.0% |
| 2026 | 10-7-1 | 58.8% |
| 2025 | 11-8-1 | 57.9% |
| 2024 | 7-8 | 46.7% |
| 2023 | 8-7 | 53.3% |
| 2022 | 9-10-1 | 47.4% |
| 2021 | 7-7 | 50.0% |
| 2020 | 9-9 | 50.0% |
| 2019 | 7-12 | 36.8% |
| 2018 | 14-8 | 63.6% |
| 2017 | 8-10 | 44.4% |
| 2016 | 11-10 | 52.4% |
| 2015 | 15-7 | 68.2% |
| 2014 | 11-7-1 | 61.1% |
| 2013 | 6-13 | 31.6% |
| 2012 | 6-8 | 42.9% |
| 2011 | 11-12 | 47.8% |
| 2010 | 10-12 | 45.5% |
| 2009 | 11-11 | 50.0% |
| 2008 | 14-9 | 60.9% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA first home game after a road trip for the New Orleans Pelicans?
185-176-4 against the spread (51.2%) in 365 team-games since 2007-08, 195-170 straight up and 172-186-7 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -2.2%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 103-99 (51.0%); 2018-2027: 82-77 (51.6%).