NBA First home game after a road trip: Houston Rockets: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The "back home" spot. 379 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 187-189-3 (49.7%)
Straight up: 247-132 (65.2%)
Over/under: 175-200-4 (46.7% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.43 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -4.0%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 116-101 (53.5%); 2018-2027: 71-88 (44.7%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2-0 | 100.0% |
| 2026 | 7-12 | 36.8% |
| 2025 | 6-9 | 40.0% |
| 2024 | 10-6 | 62.5% |
| 2023 | 6-10-1 | 37.5% |
| 2022 | 6-11 | 35.3% |
| 2021 | 3-12 | 20.0% |
| 2020 | 6-9 | 40.0% |
| 2019 | 15-7-2 | 68.2% |
| 2018 | 10-12 | 45.5% |
| 2017 | 8-16 | 33.3% |
| 2016 | 10-13 | 43.5% |
| 2015 | 17-7 | 70.8% |
| 2014 | 12-9 | 57.1% |
| 2013 | 12-9 | 57.1% |
| 2012 | 11-5 | 68.8% |
| 2011 | 12-11 | 52.2% |
| 2010 | 10-11 | 47.6% |
| 2009 | 11-13 | 45.8% |
| 2008 | 13-7 | 65.0% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA first home game after a road trip for the Houston Rockets?
187-189-3 against the spread (49.7%) in 379 team-games since 2007-08, 247-132 straight up and 175-200-4 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -4.0%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 116-101 (53.5%); 2018-2027: 71-88 (44.7%).