NBA First home game after a road trip: Minnesota Timberwolves: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The "back home" spot. 380 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 160-216-4 (42.6%)
Straight up: 170-210 (44.7%)
Over/under: 181-196-3 (48.0% overs)
Average cover margin: -1.31 points
Is it real?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 42 times. 2008-2017: 84-128 (39.6%); 2018-2027: 76-88 (46.3%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
Upcoming games that fit
- 2026-11-02: MIN vs MIL
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2026 | 8-9 | 47.1% |
| 2025 | 9-13 | 40.9% |
| 2024 | 8-8-1 | 50.0% |
| 2023 | 6-10 | 37.5% |
| 2022 | 10-8-2 | 55.6% |
| 2021 | 9-6 | 60.0% |
| 2020 | 4-12-1 | 25.0% |
| 2019 | 10-9 | 52.6% |
| 2018 | 11-12 | 47.8% |
| 2017 | 9-11 | 45.0% |
| 2016 | 8-15 | 34.8% |
| 2015 | 7-12 | 36.8% |
| 2014 | 8-15 | 34.8% |
| 2013 | 9-11 | 45.0% |
| 2012 | 8-11 | 42.1% |
| 2011 | 8-12 | 40.0% |
| 2010 | 11-12 | 47.8% |
| 2009 | 6-17 | 26.1% |
| 2008 | 10-12 | 45.5% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA first home game after a road trip for the Minnesota Timberwolves?
160-216-4 against the spread (42.6%) in 380 team-games since 2007-08, 170-210 straight up and 181-196-3 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Betting against it, a bettor with no edge makes this much profit about 1 in 42 times.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 84-128 (39.6%); 2018-2027: 76-88 (46.3%).