NBA First home game after a road trip: Dallas Mavericks: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The "back home" spot. 377 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 179-190-8 (48.5%)
Straight up: 224-153 (59.4%)
Over/under: 183-190-4 (49.1% overs)
Average cover margin: -0.68 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -1.7%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 91-106 (46.2%); 2018-2027: 88-84 (51.2%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1-1 | 50.0% |
| 2026 | 9-8 | 52.9% |
| 2025 | 9-10 | 47.4% |
| 2024 | 10-11 | 47.6% |
| 2023 | 6-10 | 37.5% |
| 2022 | 15-6 | 71.4% |
| 2021 | 6-11 | 35.3% |
| 2020 | 7-11 | 38.9% |
| 2019 | 15-6-1 | 71.4% |
| 2018 | 10-10-2 | 50.0% |
| 2017 | 11-8 | 57.9% |
| 2016 | 10-11 | 47.6% |
| 2015 | 6-15-1 | 28.6% |
| 2014 | 9-10 | 47.4% |
| 2013 | 8-9 | 47.1% |
| 2012 | 10-7 | 58.8% |
| 2011 | 10-11-1 | 47.6% |
| 2010 | 7-13-2 | 35.0% |
| 2009 | 11-12 | 47.8% |
| 2008 | 9-10-1 | 47.4% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA first home game after a road trip for the Dallas Mavericks?
179-190-8 against the spread (48.5%) in 377 team-games since 2007-08, 224-153 straight up and 183-190-4 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting against it returns -1.7%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 91-106 (46.2%); 2018-2027: 88-84 (51.2%).