NBA First home game after a road trip: Boston Celtics: ATS Record Since 2007-08
The "back home" spot. 419 team-games since 2007-08.
Against the spread: 207-207-5 (50.0%)
Straight up: 288-131 (68.7%)
Over/under: 214-198-7 (51.9% overs)
Average cover margin: 0.27 points
Is it real?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -4.5%), so there is no edge to explain. 2008-2017: 118-122 (49.2%); 2018-2027: 89-85 (51.1%). Break-even at -110 is 52.4%.
By season
| Season | ATS | Cover % |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1-0 | 100.0% |
| 2026 | 9-9 | 50.0% |
| 2025 | 6-12 | 33.3% |
| 2024 | 12-6 | 66.7% |
| 2023 | 7-9 | 43.8% |
| 2022 | 10-16 | 38.5% |
| 2021 | 10-5 | 66.7% |
| 2020 | 9-8 | 52.9% |
| 2019 | 10-13 | 43.5% |
| 2018 | 15-7-2 | 68.2% |
| 2017 | 14-12 | 53.8% |
| 2016 | 11-12 | 47.8% |
| 2015 | 12-11 | 52.2% |
| 2014 | 8-14 | 36.4% |
| 2013 | 10-12-1 | 45.5% |
| 2012 | 14-8 | 63.6% |
| 2011 | 11-11 | 50.0% |
| 2010 | 10-16-1 | 38.5% |
| 2009 | 12-14 | 46.2% |
| 2008 | 16-12-1 | 57.1% |
Questions
What is the ATS record of NBA first home game after a road trip for the Boston Celtics?
207-207-5 against the spread (50.0%) in 419 team-games since 2007-08, 288-131 straight up and 214-198-7 on the over/under.
Is this trend likely to be luck?
Neither side beats the -110 price (betting it returns -4.5%), so there is no edge to explain.
Did it hold up?
2008-2017: 118-122 (49.2%); 2018-2027: 89-85 (51.1%).